报告题目：Early-Career Setback and Future Career Impact
报告摘要：Setbacks are an integral part of a scientific career, yet little is known about their long-term effects. Here we examine junior scientists applying for National Institutes of Health R01 grants. By focusing on proposals fell just below and just above the funding threshold, we compare near-miss with narrow-win applicants, and find that an early-career setback has powerful, opposing effects. On the one hand, it significantly increases attrition, predicting more than a 10% chance of disappearing permanently from the NIH system. Yet, despite an early setback, individuals with near misses systematically outperform those with narrow wins in the longer run. Moreover, this performance advantage seems to go beyond a screening mechanism, suggesting early-career setback appears to cause a performance improvement among those who persevere. Overall, these findings are consistent with the concept that “what doesn’t kill me makes me stronger,” which may have broad implications for identifying, training and nurturing junior scientists.
报告人简介：王洋，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院教授，入选西安交通大学“青年拔尖人才计划”，加入西安交通大学之前在美国西北大学凯洛格商学院从事博士后研究。在包括《Nature》、《Nature Communications》、《Physical Review Letters》等国际知名期刊发表文章十余篇，论文有广泛的影响力，被许多国际知名媒体报道，如哈佛商业评论、经济学人、金融日报、华尔街日报等。